Recovery?

For the past few weeks some government officials and industry experts have been indicating that the economy has “bottomed out” and things are improving but I have not seen any evidence of that out in the work environment.

Each morning I read The Wall Street Journal and today (April 24), I decided to read the entire paper by only reading all of the headlines first in order to get a sense or feel for the news – a survey of sorts.

The following headlines are from just today’s issue:
Industrials Prove Less Than Durable
Swedbank Shrinks In the Baltics
Profit Slows Down at India’s HDFC
Mizuho Financial Experts Expect a $5.9 Billion Loss for Year
AmEx’s Customers Leave Cards at Home: Net Tumbles 56% as Slumping Economy Hits High-End Consumers
CME Group Profit Drops 30%
Regional Banks’ Results Keep to Sluggish Pattern
Dollar Falls as Risk Returns
Microsoft Gets Stung by Global PC Slump: Software Giant’s Profit Falls 32%
Steel Woes Signal Shakeout, Prices Cut
Small Business Owners quit Taking Salaries to Stay Afloat
High Costs Hit the Trusty Tin Can
AutoNation Falters in Downturn: Earnings Drop 32%
Steel Industry Expects Further Losses
ABB: Engineering Titan’s Profit Falls 35% in First Quarter
Bunge: Company Swings to Loss
Royal Caribbean: Cruise Operator Posts Loss
EMC’s Profit Declines 20%
Amgen Curbs Its Projection for Revenue
UPS Earnings Hit By Downturn
Net at Three Big Railroads Is Off Track
Marriott Reports Loss as Revenue Falls 15%
McClatchy Co’s Loss Balloons as Ad Sales Fall
Chrysler New Bankruptcy Filing
Home Sales Fell 3%, Layoffs Rose in March
Fed’s Earning Fall 8%

Perhaps the word of the recovery has not yet reached corporations.

THE RECESSION CONTNUES...

I have read several reports this week indicating that the economic recovery has begun. While some key indicators are improving, there are other factors that indicate that the recovery is slow.

The Conference Board reports that economic indicators sank in March for the ninth consecutive month. Declines in new building permits, the stock market and labor market activity for March pushed the index down 0.3%, after 0.2% drops the previous two months. This suggests that the U.S. economy will continue to contract.

One indicator that I use of the economy is number of new jobs. When companies have the confidence to increase hiring, that is a sign that economic recovery has begun. With the exception of a few companies, hiring has not begun and in fact, many organizations are still downsizing.

Interestingly, since World War II there have been many business cycles. The current recession is just ending its 16th month, which ties it with the two longest recessionary periods since WWII.