THE RECESSION CONTNUES...

I have read several reports this week indicating that the economic recovery has begun. While some key indicators are improving, there are other factors that indicate that the recovery is slow.

The Conference Board reports that economic indicators sank in March for the ninth consecutive month. Declines in new building permits, the stock market and labor market activity for March pushed the index down 0.3%, after 0.2% drops the previous two months. This suggests that the U.S. economy will continue to contract.

One indicator that I use of the economy is number of new jobs. When companies have the confidence to increase hiring, that is a sign that economic recovery has begun. With the exception of a few companies, hiring has not begun and in fact, many organizations are still downsizing.

Interestingly, since World War II there have been many business cycles. The current recession is just ending its 16th month, which ties it with the two longest recessionary periods since WWII.